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Geometric Distribution: Conditions, Formula, Mean, and Examples

Learn geometric distribution with current AP Statistics scope, proper formulas, worked examples, and original Easy, Tough, and Toughest questions.

Statistics guide Ethical learning support SPSS/R/Python/Excel friendly
Concept Lesson

Geometric Distribution: Conditions, Formula, Mean, and Examples

A lesson in the geometric distribution that moves from intuition and definitions to worked reasoning, error correction, and independent practice.

Course status: Legacy enrichment
Updated: July 18, 2026
Practice: Easy, Tough and Toughest

Lesson Goals: Geometric Distribution

A geometric variable counts trials until the first success, but geometric distributions are legacy enrichment because they were removed from the revised 2026-27 AP Statistics core.

Reader taskfirst-success trials, formula, cumulative probability, mean, and memorylessness
Planned modules8
Mathematics2 expressions
Worked checks54

Boundary: Clearly label this topic as removed from the revised 2026-27 AP core.

Geometric setting

Geometric setting in geometric distribution: The probability is 0.22440; the expected trial of first success is 2.941. The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k.

Worked reasoning

For Geometric setting in geometric distribution, In a constructed first-success setting for a quality-control inspection, the success probability is p=0.34. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 2.

P(X=2)=(10.34)1(0.34)=0.22440.

When the idea is valid

For Geometric setting in geometric distribution, Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course.

Misconception to remove

For Geometric setting in geometric distribution, reject this error: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

First-success probability

First-success probability in geometric distribution: The probability is 0.14512; the expected trial of first success is 2.564. The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k.

Worked reasoning

For First-success probability in geometric distribution, In a constructed first-success setting for a commuter route study, the success probability is p=0.39. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 3.

P(X=3)=(10.39)2(0.39)=0.14512.

When the idea is valid

For First-success probability in geometric distribution, Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course.

Misconception to remove

For First-success probability in geometric distribution, reject this error: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Formula

Formula in geometric distribution: The probability is 0.08195; the expected trial of first success is 2.381. The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k.

Worked reasoning

For Formula in geometric distribution, In a constructed first-success setting for a reading-speed investigation, the success probability is p=0.42. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 4.

P(X=4)=(10.42)3(0.42)=0.08195.

When the idea is valid

For Formula in geometric distribution, Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course.

Misconception to remove

For Formula in geometric distribution, reject this error: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Cumulative probability

Cumulative probability in geometric distribution: The probability is 0.07668; the expected trial of first success is 3.704. The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k.

Worked reasoning

For Cumulative probability in geometric distribution, In a constructed first-success setting for a recycling-behavior survey, the success probability is p=0.27. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 5.

P(X=5)=(10.27)4(0.27)=0.07668.

When the idea is valid

For Cumulative probability in geometric distribution, Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course.

Misconception to remove

For Cumulative probability in geometric distribution, reject this error: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Mean

Mean in geometric distribution: The probability is 0.04848; the expected trial of first success is 3.226. The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k.

Worked reasoning

For Mean in geometric distribution, In a constructed first-success setting for a campus dining survey, the success probability is p=0.31. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 6.

P(X=6)=(10.31)5(0.31)=0.04848.

When the idea is valid

For Mean in geometric distribution, Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course.

Misconception to remove

For Mean in geometric distribution, reject this error: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Calculator procedures

Calculator procedures in geometric distribution: The probability is 0.01042; the expected trial of first success is 2.128. The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k.

Worked reasoning

For Calculator procedures in geometric distribution, In a constructed first-success setting for a commuter route study, the success probability is p=0.47. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 7.

P(X=7)=(10.47)6(0.47)=0.01042.

When the idea is valid

For Calculator procedures in geometric distribution, Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course.

Misconception to remove

For Calculator procedures in geometric distribution, reject this error: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Worked examples

Worked examples in geometric distribution: The probability is 0.22750; the expected trial of first success is 2.857. The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k.

Worked reasoning

For Worked examples in geometric distribution, In a constructed first-success setting for an online-course completion sample, the success probability is p=0.35. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 2.

P(X=2)=(10.35)1(0.35)=0.22750.

When the idea is valid

For Worked examples in geometric distribution, Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course.

Misconception to remove

For Worked examples in geometric distribution, reject this error: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Memoryless property

Memoryless property in geometric distribution: The probability is 0.14272; the expected trial of first success is 2.439. The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k.

Worked reasoning

For Memoryless property in geometric distribution, In a constructed first-success setting for a recycling-behavior survey, the success probability is p=0.41. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 3.

P(X=3)=(10.41)2(0.41)=0.14272.

When the idea is valid

For Memoryless property in geometric distribution, Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course.

Misconception to remove

For Memoryless property in geometric distribution, reject this error: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Formula and Notation Reference

Exact geometric probability

P(X=k)=(1p)k1p

Exact geometric probability in Geometric Distribution: Define the event or random variable first; complements, conditioning, and trial assumptions determine which probability expression applies.

Geometric mean

E(X)=1p

Geometric mean in Geometric Distribution: This expression belongs specifically to the geometric distribution; define every symbol and apply the scope rule for first-success trials, formula, cumulative probability, mean, and memorylessness before calculation.

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Guided, Independent and Challenge Practice

Every question in Geometric Distribution: Conditions, Formula, Mean, and Examples is newly written from the revised framework and the logic visible in public College Board materials. Constructed numerical settings are identified as instructional scenarios and are never represented as measurements from a real population. No released or secure question wording is reproduced.

Easy Practice

Easy 1: Mean

Question P46-Easy-1. In a constructed first-success setting for a recycling-behavior survey, the success probability is p=0.36. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 2.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Easy-1. The probability is 0.23040; the expected trial of first success is 2.778. P(X=2)=(10.36)1(0.36)=0.23040. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Easy 2: Calculator procedures

Question P46-Easy-2. In a constructed first-success setting for a tutoring-program evaluation, the success probability is p=0.48. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 3.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Easy-2. The probability is 0.12979; the expected trial of first success is 2.083. P(X=3)=(10.48)2(0.48)=0.12979. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Easy 3: Worked examples

Question P46-Easy-3. In a constructed first-success setting for a manufacturing fill-volume check, the success probability is p=0.46. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 4.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Easy-3. The probability is 0.07243; the expected trial of first success is 2.174. P(X=4)=(10.46)3(0.46)=0.07243. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Easy 4: Memoryless property

Question P46-Easy-4. In a constructed first-success setting for a battery-life laboratory trial, the success probability is p=0.39. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 5.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Easy-4. The probability is 0.05400; the expected trial of first success is 2.564. P(X=5)=(10.39)4(0.39)=0.05400. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Easy 5: Geometric setting

Question P46-Easy-5. In a constructed first-success setting for a seedling-growth comparison, the success probability is p=0.53. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 6.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Easy-5. The probability is 0.01216; the expected trial of first success is 1.887. P(X=6)=(10.53)5(0.53)=0.01216. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Easy 6: First-success probability

Question P46-Easy-6. In a constructed first-success setting for a recycling-behavior survey, the success probability is p=0.25. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 7.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Easy-6. The probability is 0.04449; the expected trial of first success is 4.000. P(X=7)=(10.25)6(0.25)=0.04449. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Easy 7: Formula

Question P46-Easy-7. In a constructed first-success setting for a city bus arrival investigation, the success probability is p=0.33. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 2.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Easy-7. The probability is 0.22110; the expected trial of first success is 3.030. P(X=2)=(10.33)1(0.33)=0.22110. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Easy 8: Cumulative probability

Question P46-Easy-8. In a constructed first-success setting for a quality-control inspection, the success probability is p=0.33. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 3.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Easy-8. The probability is 0.14814; the expected trial of first success is 3.030. P(X=3)=(10.33)2(0.33)=0.14814. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Easy 9: Mean

Question P46-Easy-9. In a constructed first-success setting for a greenhouse germination experiment, the success probability is p=0.30. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 4.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Easy-9. The probability is 0.10290; the expected trial of first success is 3.333. P(X=4)=(10.30)3(0.30)=0.10290. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Easy 10: Calculator procedures

Question P46-Easy-10. In a constructed first-success setting for a city bus arrival investigation, the success probability is p=0.48. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 5.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Easy-10. The probability is 0.03510; the expected trial of first success is 2.083. P(X=5)=(10.48)4(0.48)=0.03510. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Easy 11: Worked examples

Question P46-Easy-11. In a constructed first-success setting for a reading-speed investigation, the success probability is p=0.34. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 6.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Easy-11. The probability is 0.04258; the expected trial of first success is 2.941. P(X=6)=(10.34)5(0.34)=0.04258. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Easy 12: Memoryless property

Question P46-Easy-12. In a constructed first-success setting for a reading-speed investigation, the success probability is p=0.39. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 7.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Easy-12. The probability is 0.02009; the expected trial of first success is 2.564. P(X=7)=(10.39)6(0.39)=0.02009. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Easy 13: Geometric setting

Question P46-Easy-13. In a constructed first-success setting for a tutoring-program evaluation, the success probability is p=0.31. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 2.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Easy-13. The probability is 0.21390; the expected trial of first success is 3.226. P(X=2)=(10.31)1(0.31)=0.21390. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Easy 14: First-success probability

Question P46-Easy-14. In a constructed first-success setting for a package-delivery sample, the success probability is p=0.44. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 3.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Easy-14. The probability is 0.13798; the expected trial of first success is 2.273. P(X=3)=(10.44)2(0.44)=0.13798. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Easy 15: Formula

Question P46-Easy-15. In a constructed first-success setting for a campus dining survey, the success probability is p=0.33. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 4.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Easy-15. The probability is 0.09925; the expected trial of first success is 3.030. P(X=4)=(10.33)3(0.33)=0.09925. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Easy 16: Cumulative probability

Question P46-Easy-16. In a constructed first-success setting for a battery-life laboratory trial, the success probability is p=0.39. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 5.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Easy-16. The probability is 0.05400; the expected trial of first success is 2.564. P(X=5)=(10.39)4(0.39)=0.05400. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Easy 17: Mean

Question P46-Easy-17. In a constructed first-success setting for a tutoring-program evaluation, the success probability is p=0.27. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 6.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Easy-17. The probability is 0.05597; the expected trial of first success is 3.704. P(X=6)=(10.27)5(0.27)=0.05597. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Easy 18: Calculator procedures

Question P46-Easy-18. In a constructed first-success setting for a water-filtration experiment, the success probability is p=0.35. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 7.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Easy-18. The probability is 0.02640; the expected trial of first success is 2.857. P(X=7)=(10.35)6(0.35)=0.02640. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Tough Practice

Tough 1: Worked examples

Question P46-Tough-1. In a constructed first-success setting for a classroom memory study, the success probability is p=0.29. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 2.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Tough-1. The probability is 0.20590; the expected trial of first success is 3.448. P(X=2)=(10.29)1(0.29)=0.20590. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Tough 2: Memoryless property

Question P46-Tough-2. In a constructed first-success setting for an online-course completion sample, the success probability is p=0.40. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 3.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Tough-2. The probability is 0.14400; the expected trial of first success is 2.500. P(X=3)=(10.40)2(0.40)=0.14400. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Tough 3: Geometric setting

Question P46-Tough-3. In a constructed first-success setting for a school library checkout study, the success probability is p=0.35. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 4.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Tough-3. The probability is 0.09612; the expected trial of first success is 2.857. P(X=4)=(10.35)3(0.35)=0.09612. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Tough 4: First-success probability

Question P46-Tough-4. In a constructed first-success setting for a tutoring-program evaluation, the success probability is p=0.52. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 5.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Tough-4. The probability is 0.02760; the expected trial of first success is 1.923. P(X=5)=(10.52)4(0.52)=0.02760. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Tough 5: Formula

Question P46-Tough-5. In a constructed first-success setting for a package-delivery sample, the success probability is p=0.41. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 6.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Tough-5. The probability is 0.02931; the expected trial of first success is 2.439. P(X=6)=(10.41)5(0.41)=0.02931. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Tough 6: Cumulative probability

Question P46-Tough-6. In a constructed first-success setting for a reading-speed investigation, the success probability is p=0.39. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 7.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Tough-6. The probability is 0.02009; the expected trial of first success is 2.564. P(X=7)=(10.39)6(0.39)=0.02009. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Tough 7: Mean

Question P46-Tough-7. In a constructed first-success setting for a greenhouse germination experiment, the success probability is p=0.50. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 2.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Tough-7. The probability is 0.25000; the expected trial of first success is 2.000. P(X=2)=(10.50)1(0.50)=0.25000. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Tough 8: Calculator procedures

Question P46-Tough-8. In a constructed first-success setting for a campus dining survey, the success probability is p=0.46. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 3.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Tough-8. The probability is 0.13414; the expected trial of first success is 2.174. P(X=3)=(10.46)2(0.46)=0.13414. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Tough 9: Worked examples

Question P46-Tough-9. In a constructed first-success setting for a water-filtration experiment, the success probability is p=0.44. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 4.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Tough-9. The probability is 0.07727; the expected trial of first success is 2.273. P(X=4)=(10.44)3(0.44)=0.07727. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Tough 10: Memoryless property

Question P46-Tough-10. In a constructed first-success setting for a greenhouse germination experiment, the success probability is p=0.41. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 5.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Tough-10. The probability is 0.04968; the expected trial of first success is 2.439. P(X=5)=(10.41)4(0.41)=0.04968. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Tough 11: Geometric setting

Question P46-Tough-11. In a constructed first-success setting for a public-parks visitor survey, the success probability is p=0.33. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 6.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Tough-11. The probability is 0.04455; the expected trial of first success is 3.030. P(X=6)=(10.33)5(0.33)=0.04455. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Tough 12: First-success probability

Question P46-Tough-12. In a constructed first-success setting for a city bus arrival investigation, the success probability is p=0.46. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 7.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Tough-12. The probability is 0.01141; the expected trial of first success is 2.174. P(X=7)=(10.46)6(0.46)=0.01141. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Tough 13: Formula

Question P46-Tough-13. In a constructed first-success setting for a city bus arrival investigation, the success probability is p=0.33. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 2.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Tough-13. The probability is 0.22110; the expected trial of first success is 3.030. P(X=2)=(10.33)1(0.33)=0.22110. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Tough 14: Cumulative probability

Question P46-Tough-14. In a constructed first-success setting for a reading-speed investigation, the success probability is p=0.25. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 3.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Tough-14. The probability is 0.14062; the expected trial of first success is 4.000. P(X=3)=(10.25)2(0.25)=0.14062. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Tough 15: Mean

Question P46-Tough-15. In a constructed first-success setting for a school library checkout study, the success probability is p=0.35. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 4.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Tough-15. The probability is 0.09612; the expected trial of first success is 2.857. P(X=4)=(10.35)3(0.35)=0.09612. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Tough 16: Calculator procedures

Question P46-Tough-16. In a constructed first-success setting for a reading-speed investigation, the success probability is p=0.53. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 5.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Tough-16. The probability is 0.02586; the expected trial of first success is 1.887. P(X=5)=(10.53)4(0.53)=0.02586. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Tough 17: Worked examples

Question P46-Tough-17. In a constructed first-success setting for a water-filtration experiment, the success probability is p=0.54. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 6.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Tough-17. The probability is 0.01112; the expected trial of first success is 1.852. P(X=6)=(10.54)5(0.54)=0.01112. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Tough 18: Memoryless property

Question P46-Tough-18. In a constructed first-success setting for a classroom memory study, the success probability is p=0.42. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 7.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Tough-18. The probability is 0.01599; the expected trial of first success is 2.381. P(X=7)=(10.42)6(0.42)=0.01599. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Toughest Practice

Toughest 1: Mean

Question P46-Toughest-1. In a constructed first-success setting for a greenhouse germination experiment, the success probability is p=0.26. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 2.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Toughest-1. The probability is 0.19240; the expected trial of first success is 3.846. P(X=2)=(10.26)1(0.26)=0.19240. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Toughest 2: Calculator procedures

Question P46-Toughest-2. In a constructed first-success setting for a commuter route study, the success probability is p=0.51. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 3.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Toughest-2. The probability is 0.12245; the expected trial of first success is 1.961. P(X=3)=(10.51)2(0.51)=0.12245. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Toughest 3: Worked examples

Question P46-Toughest-3. In a constructed first-success setting for a seedling-growth comparison, the success probability is p=0.37. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 4.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Toughest-3. The probability is 0.09252; the expected trial of first success is 2.703. P(X=4)=(10.37)3(0.37)=0.09252. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Toughest 4: Memoryless property

Question P46-Toughest-4. In a constructed first-success setting for a water-filtration experiment, the success probability is p=0.49. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 5.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Toughest-4. The probability is 0.03315; the expected trial of first success is 2.041. P(X=5)=(10.49)4(0.49)=0.03315. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Toughest 5: Geometric setting

Question P46-Toughest-5. In a constructed first-success setting for a school library checkout study, the success probability is p=0.51. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 6.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Toughest-5. The probability is 0.01441; the expected trial of first success is 1.961. P(X=6)=(10.51)5(0.51)=0.01441. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Toughest 6: First-success probability

Question P46-Toughest-6. In a constructed first-success setting for an online-course completion sample, the success probability is p=0.36. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 7.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Toughest-6. The probability is 0.02474; the expected trial of first success is 2.778. P(X=7)=(10.36)6(0.36)=0.02474. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Toughest 7: Formula

Question P46-Toughest-7. In a constructed first-success setting for a battery-life laboratory trial, the success probability is p=0.54. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 2.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Toughest-7. The probability is 0.24840; the expected trial of first success is 1.852. P(X=2)=(10.54)1(0.54)=0.24840. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Toughest 8: Cumulative probability

Question P46-Toughest-8. In a constructed first-success setting for a public-parks visitor survey, the success probability is p=0.30. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 3.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Toughest-8. The probability is 0.14700; the expected trial of first success is 3.333. P(X=3)=(10.30)2(0.30)=0.14700. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Toughest 9: Mean

Question P46-Toughest-9. In a constructed first-success setting for a website response-time study, the success probability is p=0.36. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 4.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Toughest-9. The probability is 0.09437; the expected trial of first success is 2.778. P(X=4)=(10.36)3(0.36)=0.09437. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Toughest 10: Calculator procedures

Question P46-Toughest-10. In a constructed first-success setting for a recycling-behavior survey, the success probability is p=0.39. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 5.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Toughest-10. The probability is 0.05400; the expected trial of first success is 2.564. P(X=5)=(10.39)4(0.39)=0.05400. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Toughest 11: Worked examples

Question P46-Toughest-11. In a constructed first-success setting for a public-parks visitor survey, the success probability is p=0.51. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 6.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Toughest-11. The probability is 0.01441; the expected trial of first success is 1.961. P(X=6)=(10.51)5(0.51)=0.01441. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Toughest 12: Memoryless property

Question P46-Toughest-12. In a constructed first-success setting for a manufacturing fill-volume check, the success probability is p=0.25. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 7.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Toughest-12. The probability is 0.04449; the expected trial of first success is 4.000. P(X=7)=(10.25)6(0.25)=0.04449. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Toughest 13: Geometric setting

Question P46-Toughest-13. In a constructed first-success setting for a school library checkout study, the success probability is p=0.25. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 2.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Toughest-13. The probability is 0.18750; the expected trial of first success is 4.000. P(X=2)=(10.25)1(0.25)=0.18750. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Toughest 14: First-success probability

Question P46-Toughest-14. In a constructed first-success setting for a city bus arrival investigation, the success probability is p=0.38. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 3.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Toughest-14. The probability is 0.14607; the expected trial of first success is 2.632. P(X=3)=(10.38)2(0.38)=0.14607. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Toughest 15: Formula

Question P46-Toughest-15. In a constructed first-success setting for a package-delivery sample, the success probability is p=0.37. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 4.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Toughest-15. The probability is 0.09252; the expected trial of first success is 2.703. P(X=4)=(10.37)3(0.37)=0.09252. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Toughest 16: Cumulative probability

Question P46-Toughest-16. In a constructed first-success setting for a greenhouse germination experiment, the success probability is p=0.53. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 5.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Toughest-16. The probability is 0.02586; the expected trial of first success is 1.887. P(X=5)=(10.53)4(0.53)=0.02586. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Toughest 17: Mean

Question P46-Toughest-17. In a constructed first-success setting for a quality-control inspection, the success probability is p=0.36. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 6.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Toughest-17. The probability is 0.03865; the expected trial of first success is 2.778. P(X=6)=(10.36)5(0.36)=0.03865. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Toughest 18: Calculator procedures

Question P46-Toughest-18. In a constructed first-success setting for a tutoring-program evaluation, the success probability is p=0.44. Find the probability the first success occurs on trial 7.

Worked solution and validity check

Worked solution P46-Toughest-18. The probability is 0.01357; the expected trial of first success is 2.273. P(X=7)=(10.44)6(0.44)=0.01357. Interpretation: The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. Validity: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course. Error to reject: Do not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

AP Response and Publication Checklist

Audit pointRequired evidence for geometric distribution
ScopeClearly label this topic as removed from the revised 2026-27 AP core.
Method or sourceA geometric variable counts trials until the first success, but geometric distributions are legacy enrichment because they were removed from the revised 2026-27 AP Statistics core.
CalculationP(X=2)=(10.42)1(0.42)=0.24360.
InterpretationThe event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k.
ValidityTrials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course.
CorrectionDo not use a binomial coefficient because there is only one allowed order for first success on trial k.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does geometric setting work in geometric distribution?

Answer for geometric distribution and Geometric setting. The probability is 0.05597; the expected trial of first success is 3.704. The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. The required validity evidence is: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course.

How does first-success probability work in geometric distribution?

Answer for geometric distribution and First-success probability. The probability is 0.00706; the expected trial of first success is 1.961. The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. The required validity evidence is: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course.

How does formula work in geometric distribution?

Answer for geometric distribution and Formula. The probability is 0.19710; the expected trial of first success is 3.704. The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. The required validity evidence is: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course.

How does cumulative probability work in geometric distribution?

Answer for geometric distribution and Cumulative probability. The probability is 0.14238; the expected trial of first success is 3.846. The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. The required validity evidence is: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course.

How does mean work in geometric distribution?

Answer for geometric distribution and Mean. The probability is 0.10547; the expected trial of first success is 4.000. The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. The required validity evidence is: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course.

How does calculator procedures work in geometric distribution?

Answer for geometric distribution and Calculator procedures. The probability is 0.02418; the expected trial of first success is 1.852. The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. The required validity evidence is: Trials must be independent, use the same p, and continue until the first success. This is legacy enrichment for the revised AP course.

How does geometric random variable connect to Geometric Distribution?

geometric random variable within geometric distribution. The probability is 0.10503; the expected trial of first success is 3.704. The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. For Geometric setting, the controlling scope is: Clearly label this topic as removed from the revised 2026-27 AP core.

How does expected value of geometric random variable connect to Geometric Distribution?

expected value of geometric random variable within geometric distribution. The probability is 0.04539; the expected trial of first success is 2.326. The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. For First-success probability, the controlling scope is: Clearly label this topic as removed from the revised 2026-27 AP core.

How does geometrically distributed random variable connect to Geometric Distribution?

geometrically distributed random variable within geometric distribution. The probability is 0.02265; the expected trial of first success is 2.222. The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. For Formula, the controlling scope is: Clearly label this topic as removed from the revised 2026-27 AP core.

How does geometric random variable formula connect to Geometric Distribution?

geometric random variable formula within geometric distribution. The probability is 0.02313; the expected trial of first success is 2.703. The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. For Cumulative probability, the controlling scope is: Clearly label this topic as removed from the revised 2026-27 AP core.

How does what is a geometric random variable connect to Geometric Distribution?

what is a geometric random variable within geometric distribution. The probability is 0.23790; the expected trial of first success is 2.564. The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. For Mean, the controlling scope is: Clearly label this topic as removed from the revised 2026-27 AP core.

How does geometric random variables connect to Geometric Distribution?

geometric random variables within geometric distribution. The probability is 0.14272; the expected trial of first success is 2.439. The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. For Calculator procedures, the controlling scope is: Clearly label this topic as removed from the revised 2026-27 AP core.

How does geometric random variable expected value connect to Geometric Distribution?

geometric random variable expected value within geometric distribution. The probability is 0.10451; the expected trial of first success is 3.571. The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. For Worked examples, the controlling scope is: Clearly label this topic as removed from the revised 2026-27 AP core.

How does cdf of geometric random variable connect to Geometric Distribution?

cdf of geometric random variable within geometric distribution. The probability is 0.07203; the expected trial of first success is 3.333. The event requires failures on every earlier trial followed by a success on trial k. For Memoryless property, the controlling scope is: Clearly label this topic as removed from the revised 2026-27 AP core.

Sources

Administrative and curricular statements in Geometric Distribution: Conditions, Formula, Mean, and Examples were checked on July 18, 2026. The linked College Board pages control any later policy change; all instructional datasets in original questions are explicitly constructed rather than attributed to a real study.

Geometric Distribution Conclusion

A geometric variable counts trials until the first success, but geometric distributions are legacy enrichment because they were removed from the revised 2026-27 AP Statistics core. Mastery of geometric distribution therefore requires the exact evidence, mathematics, interpretation, and scope developed in this guide, while preserving this boundary: Clearly label this topic as removed from the revised 2026-27 AP core.

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