Calculate Shiny Pokémon Odds Across Repeated Attempts
Choose a common odds preset or enter the denominator shown for your game and method. The calculator uses independent-attempt probability rather than guaranteeing a shiny.
ODDS
Shiny-hunt assumptions
Shiny probability results
How Pokémon shiny probability is calculated
For one target shiny and a constant per-attempt probability of one divided by the denominator, the chance of no shiny in n attempts is (1 − p)n. The chance of at least one is one minus that value. This explains why reaching the listed odds denominator does not create a guarantee.
The target-attempt calculation solves the same equation in reverse. It estimates how many independent attempts are required to reach the selected probability. The expected shiny count is attempts multiplied by per-attempt probability, but an expectation is a long-run average rather than the number a particular player must receive.
Use the right game odds
Shiny mechanics differ across Pokémon titles and methods. The presets are convenient denominators, not claims that one preset applies everywhere. Confirm the odds for the exact game, charm status, encounter method, chain, raid or egg method and use the custom field when necessary.
Multiple-target mode uses a binomial calculation for at least the selected number of shinies. It assumes attempts do not change one another; methods with chaining or changing odds should be divided into separate stages.
Am I guaranteed a shiny after reaching the odds denominator?
No. Independent attempts never guarantee a success; the calculator reports probability and expected value, not a guaranteed attempt number.